Now that Adam Dunn has finally signed with the Washington Nationals, I have read numerous analyses concluding that Dunn's power numbers will not be affected by the park switch. On various fantasy sites and message boards, I have read the following exact quotes:

...but Dunn's home runs seldom scrape over the fence.

However, Dunn's power transfers anywhere. It's not exactly like he hits a bunch of wall scrapers.

Adam Dunn is not going to lose any fantasy value in Washington with the Nationals. Adam Dunn could play in Petco and hit 40 home runs...

If you've ever actually seen some of Dunn's home runs, they are rarely cheap. When he gets a hold of one, you don't have to guess if it'll make it over the wall.

This is pretty ridiculous to me. Every major league player is affected by park factors. How could anyone possibly think that this is not the case? Sure, I might agree that Dunn may not be as affected as some other players who have less power, but that doesn't mean Dunn won't be affected at all! By arguing that since Dunn's home runs are never cheap shots and always clear the wall with ease, you are inferring that Dunn has never hit a warning track shot that may have cleared the fence in the right environment and has never hit a ball that just went over the wall. Does Dunn have some sort of special ability to only hit fly balls either 300 feet or less or 450 feet or more? That's absurd!

Luckily, we have a fantastic resource at Hit Tracker Online that could actually tell us if Dunn did indeed hit any cheap home runs over the last couple of years. These are classified as "just enough" or "lucky" on the site. Sure enough, Adam hit nine home runs of the "just enough" variety in 2008, three of which would have been homers in less than half of MLB parks. In 2007, Dunn also hit nine "just enough" homers ?and, once again, three of them would have been homers in at most half of MLB parks.

The Great American Ballpark has inflated left-handed home runs by 23% over the last three years, while Nationals Park reduced left-handed home runs by 16% in 2008. Though admittedly you can't apply such park factors exactly to every major league hitter since every player could and will be affected differently depending on his spray chart, you can't just simply ignore such stark differences in how the parks affect offense on the average.

All else equal, Adam Dunn will lose a couple of home runs due solely to the switch in home park. It would be unwise to ignore the facts and leave his fantasy value unchanged.