8 Divisions in 8 Weeks: New England Patriots Fantasy Preview
Date: 5/30/2009 8:04:00 PM
8 Divisions in 8 Weeks - Patriots
DynastyRogues.com kicks off its "8 Divisions in 8 Weeks" series with an in-depth analysis of the 2009 New England Patriots. Stay tuned as the Rogues will be breaking down a new division each week and providing you with all of the information you need to know leading up to training camp.
New England Patriots
Last season the Patriots finished 11-5, but sat home watching the playoffs despite putting a 47-7 beat-down on the eventual NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals in week 16. In the 'shot heard around the world' the team lost All-World QB Tom Brady on the first drive of the season after getting hit while trying to recreate the previous season's magic with WR Randy Moss. Most New England fans and Patriot-haters thought the season was over as back-up QB Matt Cassel stepped in as the starter and made his first start since high school. Cassel got off to a slow start only throwing for more than 250 yards twice over the first 10 games and failing to crack the 200 yard mark in four of his first eight games. However he exploded over the final six weeks of the season throwing for more than 400 yards in two consecutive weeks and throwing for 13 of his 21 TD passes in the final seven weeks of the season.
Though some thought he was mailing it in at times after Brady went down, Moss still turned in a decent season catching 11 TD passes while barely getting across the 1,000 yard mark. Moss lead the team in TD receptions, but Wes Welker led the way in receptions by a large margin with 111 and led the team in receiving yardage with 1,165. It was another season of frustration for owners of New England running backs. Once again, most were high on former 1st round pick Laurence Maroney, but they were once again disappointed. After cracking the 100 yard mark three times in 2007, he failed to do so the entire season in 2008 finishing with only 93 yards on 28 carries appearing in only three games before finally being put on injured reserve. The Patriots were a full-blown RBBC last year led on the ground by Sammy Morris and through the air by Kevin Faulk, who fell just short of 1,000 all purpose yards on 58 receptions with and 6 total TDs.
Quarterback
1. Tom Brady - There were some initial concerns Tom Brady may not be ready for the 2009 season after tearing his ACL and MCL last season. However, he clearly is close to 100% otherwise the Patriots would have held on to Matt Cassel as they head into what will be the final season with their nucleus intact. We expect a season similar to what Peyton Manning had in 2008, with some initial missed passes and perhaps some tentativeness stepping into his passes but like Manning he will come close to his usual form after a couple of weeks. If you own Brady we can't stress enough that you may need to be patient with him for the first quarter of the season. If he does struggle to start the season, we recommend you keep an eye out for a panicked Brady owner and try to pounce.
2. Kevin O'Connell - The Patriots saw something in Kevin O'Connell when they spent a 3rd round pick on him during the 2008 draft. Last year's injury to Tom Brady gave O'Connell the opportunity to take 2nd team snaps for almost all of his rookie season and according to HC Bill Belichick he "came along well.' With the possibility of a setback for Brady's recovery, dealing away Matt Cassel is not only an expression of confidence in Brady but an expression of confidence in O'Connell. We fully expect Brady to be fine, but if something were to happen we would not hesitate to grab O'Connell.
Running Back
1. Laurence Maroney - Laurence Maroney has never lived up to his 1st round pedigree frustrating fantasy owners for the past two seasons, especially last year. Some thought Maroney could be released this off-season but with the way his contract is structured it made more sense to hang on to him for one more season. The good news for Maroney is the Patriots made 12 selections on draft day and not one of them were a RB. With that in mind this is the put-up or shut-up season for LoMo. HC Bill Belichick insists that he hasn't lost confidence in Maroney, but the signing of Fred Taylor indicates otherwise. It's still likely the Patriots will employ a heavy RBBC this season. Maroney will be given every opportunity to lead it but the Patriots brass won't give him much rope and have shown in the past that despite being a 1st rounder, they won't hesitate to take away his opportunities.
2. Fred Taylor - Fred Taylor is only one year removed from a Pro Bowl season where he rushed for close to 1,400 yards. We think he still has something left in the tank and is the dark horse to lead the RBBC. If he is given that opportunity he will certainly be a late round value this year.
3. Sammy Morris - Sammy Morris was the leading rusher for the Patriots last season but seems to be third best to lead the RBBC. Like in years' past however, Morris comes into the season with an expectation of a small workload but injuries and underperformance could push him back to the top.
4. Kevin Faulk - Kevin Faulk had his best statistical season since 2003 last season with 53 receptions and nearly had 1,000 all purpose yards and has had 40 or more receptions over the past three seasons. He is still a decent low-end bye-week filler and will easily be the leading receiver out of the backfield again for the Patriots. He may put up decent numbers for one more season but will turn 33 before the start of training camp and his NFL days are numbered.
Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss - Randy Moss' numbers took a step back in 2008 but when you put up 1,500 yards and 23 TDs they were almost certain to fall. He was able to scrape past the 1,000 yard mark after picking up 13 yards in the season finale against the Buffalo Bills. Speaking of the Bills, the Patriots open up against the Bills on Monday Night in the first of two meetings between Moss and Terrell Owens. While we don't expect a repeat of what Moss did in 2007, he will be closer to those numbers than what he did last year.
2. Wes Welker - There's no reason to think Welker's production will drop heading into 2009. Welker caught 112 passes in 2007 with Tom Brady under center and caught 111 passes last season with Matt Cassel throwing the ball. In fact his yardage numbers were extremely comparable over the past two seasons with his 2008 numbers dropping off by only 10 yards. Don't rely on Welker for TDs as he will probably end up somewhere between 5 and 7 for 2009. As a result, there is a big drop off in value for Welker in PPR vs non PPR formats.
3. and 4. **CAMP BATTLE** Joey Galloway/Greg Lewis - Neither Joey Galloway or Greg Lewis will be more than a bye-week filler for your fantasy team, and that's if one secures the job. If this camp battle turns into a stalemate and the Patriots decide to use both at varying times throughout the season then neither will have much value. If one can secure the job, there will be some yards for them to grab. Last season Patriots #3 Jabar Gaffney finished with 38 catches for 468 yards. He did his most damage when the Jets and Dolphins did a decent job clamping down on Moss and Welker. The Patriots are also a team that likes to run the spread offense and there will be times where all four are on the field at once.
5. Brandon Tate - Brandon Tate (one of the team's 3rd round draft picks this year) was one of the most prolific returners in college football history. Tate left North Carolina after having set the NCAA record for most combined kick return yards with 3,523. He may start the 2009 season on the PUP list but if he doesn't suffer setbacks he has the talent to be the Patriots version of Devin Hester. However he's never really had an opportunity to be a WR until last season at UNC which was cut short by a knee injury (torn ACL and MCL).
Tight End
1. Ben Watson - Ben Watson may not even be worthy of a back-up TE spot on your fantasy squad. Watson's numbers declined for the second straight season in both yardage and receptions and he had his worst season since his rookie year in all categories. In such a high powered offense, he and the TE position in general are an afterthought.
2. Chris Baker - Chris Baker was brought in after a sub 200 yard season with the Jets in 2008. He will be more of a blocking TE than a fantasy threat.
3. Alex Smith - Alex Smith is a hybrid TE who blocks well and can catch passes but will not be a fantasy threat. The depth at the position will allow the Patriots to run more 2-TE sets and perhaps even throw to a TE in the red zone every so often rather than bringing in a LB.
Defense
The Patriots defense already appeared to be in decline heading into the 2008 season and then suffered one injury after another. The situation became so dire that the team had to lure Junior Seau out of retirement. Now Mike Vrabel is gone after being traded to the Chiefs leaving some questions at OLB. Pierre Woods appears to be best option to slide into Vrabel's vacancy. Woods played well when Adalius Thomas went down last year, but he went down himself suffering a broken jaw in the latter part of the season. The secondary will have some question marks as well as S James Sanders suddenly becomes the longest tenured member of the secondary after Ellis Hobbs was moved to Philadelphia. The addition of former Redskin Shawn Springs and Lion Leigh Bodden are both low risk, potential high reward signings. The front three looks excellent with NT Vince Wilfork and DE Richard Seymour back for one more run before their contracts expire and Ty Warren patrolling the other end. The resigning of Mike Wright who can play both NT and DE and the drafting of Ron Brace should make the depth of the front three even stronger. This is a defense that we this will finish in the middle of the pack in fantasy points, but if everything in the secondary pans out they have the potential to be a top 10 defense.
