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FantasyFootballBrothers RB Draft Day Philosphy
Date: 8/25/2009 12:56:00 PM  

Welcome to Fantasy Football Brothers Free Draft Kit. Today we kick off our coverage of the running backs as we will look at the state of the running back position. A draft philosophy if you will, in regards to the most convoluted position in Fantasy these days. Stay tuned all week as we continue our RB week.

The running back position has become the hardest position to judge in all of Fantasy football. The three down back is all but extinct. There were only five  RBs that carried the ball over 300 times last season. In 2006 there were 10 backs that accomplished this. The NFL is a copycat league, and a few teams have been successful with the most dreaded words in Fantasy Football. The Running Back By Committee. Owners hear RBBC and there is only one word that comes to mind, the Old F-bomb. RBBC’s are the most frustrating thing in Fantasy Football, the situation changes daily, weekly, and you always have to keep an eye on your team, and then translate coach speak. . People develop a legit hate for NFL coaches, Mike Shanahan is a hall of famer as far as RBBC’s go. Torturing fantasy owners every Sunday, never knowing who would play, sit, or going to get the bulk of the carries. I hated that guy.

As teams have abandoned the three down back , specialists have started to appear. Goal-line backs, 3rd down backs, between the 20’s backs, closers, change of pace backs. Simply put there are way too many categories, and who can keep track of who gets the ball and when? Fantasy owners are held hostage by teams that don’t clearly define player roles. Sometimes there is no rhyme or reason. SEE BALTIMORE

The RBBC era has brought to light new draft philosophies. The days of every owner drafting back to back running backs is quickly coming to an end. There are owners picking late in the first round that have been going away from this strategy and there has been a steady increase the last few years. This new era has brought drafting QB’s and WR’s in the  1st rd. There are two WR’s  and two QB’s that could go in the first round this year.  If I told you that this could happen two years ago, you would have dismissed me, but now I have your attention. You’ve been nodding along as you’ve been reading this saying I’ve been in RBBC denial. Well my friends the first step is admitting there is a problem. The problem is you get more value drafting WR Andre Johnson late in first than you would say RB Frank Gore; why because Andre Johnson is more likely to have 1,300 yds and 10 tDs than Gore. It’s that simple. If it’s some sort of a P.P.R. then all the more reason the receiver holds more value. Owners need to realize that Gore, could easily have the same statistics as Pierre Thomas, who will go in the 3rd. There is no chance in hell, WR A.J., WR Larry Fitzgerald, or WR RandyMoss is going to be available in the 3rd. My point is this, the NFL is great because of the parity in the league. Well now there is parity amongst running backs. Yes there are five must haves RB’s  at the beginning of the draft. After Steven Jackson, the decline begins in earnest. Whether it is DeAnglelo Williams who had an amazing season last year, but will most likely not come close to repeating his numbers. What about L.D.T.? Who could just be washed up or could  return to Fantasy stardom. RB Brian Westbrook who puts up great numbers but is always inevitably hurt, and the Eagles might have finally got it right and drafted his successor. Which RB Clinton Portis will show up the one that was top five for the first eight games, or the slow plodding back of the last eight games?

There are RBBC’s that are more draft worthy than others. RBBC backs can be easier to gauge if they play on a team that has three things.  A commitment to the run, a solid defense that can keep games close, and an above average offensive line. Think Carolina,Giants,Tennessee.

RBBC’s are bad when a team does not have defined roles, solid offensive lines, or the defense is porous and forces the team to abandon the run and start chucking. Think, Seattle, Denver, and New England (though meeting some of the positive criteria injuries have made them a bad RBBC Team).

So what’s my point you ask?

The difference is this. In one of my leagues which is a half point P.P.R. standard scoring league. The highest scoring RB in my league averaged just 1.3 points a game more than the 14th ranked guy. There were 25 RBs that were within a hundred points total or less of being ranked in the top six. That my friends’ is parity.

So know who you are drafting. Know what their situation is. If you get a guy that doesn’t rush for many td’s like Ryan Grant, make sure you make up that difference elsewhere. If you have a RB or two that have injury histories  (Steven Jackson,Brian Westbrook)you need to draft for more depth at RB. The same goes for any RB that you draft in a RBBC. Their role is going to change during the season, you need to hope the change is in your favor. Don’t get sucked into the sexiness of the rookie running backs, the odds are stacked against them to succeed. See my Rookie RB report in a few weeks. Make a list of the RB’s you want on your team. Stick to that list, do not talk yourself into taking some else one on draft night, unless you’ve heard they’ve won the starting job on the way to your draft.

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